Modeling Plant Diversity and Post-Fire Regeneration in a 31-Year-Old Bum - Vermilion Pass, Canadian Rackies :

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Approval Page ........................................................................................................i. .
Abstract ............... .. ........................ ................................................ ....................... iii
Acknowledgements ................................................................................................ iv
Dedication ............................................................................................................v.. .
Table of Contents ......................................................................... . ...................... vi
... List of Tables ........................................................................................................... wii
List of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
List of Equations ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xii
S.. Epigraph . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xin
CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................... 1
CHAPTER 2 - BACKGROUND ............................................. ..................... ................ 4
CHAPTER 3 - LITERATURE REVIEW .... .. .... .. .... .. ...... ..... .. .... . .... . . . . . . . ........... 10
3.1 - Subalpine Forest Fne Ecology . . . ... . . . .... .. ...... . . . . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.2 - Modeling Composition and Distribution of Vegetation .. . .. . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . ... . . . 12
3.3 - Past Vegetation Studies in and Around Vermilion Pas ........ . .... .... . .. .. .. .. . ....... .. 17
3.4 - Literature Review Summary . . .... ... ... ......... . .... . .... . . .... ... . . . . . . . . . . . 26
CHAPTER 4 - METHODS ..................................... . . ... ................. ....................2 7
4.1 - Field Data Collection, Input and Verif'ition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . 27
4.2 - Cluster Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
4.3 - Incorporation of Spatial Data . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
4.4 - Identification of Diagnostic Species . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 9
4.5 - Modeling Distributions of Diagnostic Species ......................... .............. .......... 44
vi
4.6 .Mo deling Distribution of Plant Communiaes ................................................ 52
CHAPTER 5 O RESULTS ............................... .... ........................................................ 57
5.1 O Field Data Set ...................................................................................5..7.
5.2 O Cluster Anaiysis ..................................................................................... 58
5.3 .In corporation of Spatial Data ................................................................... 59
5.4 .Ide ntification of Diagnostic Species ............................................................. 61
5.5 . Modeling Distributions of Diagnostic Species ................................................. 71
5.6 . Modeling Distribution of Plant Cornmunilies ................................................... 83
CHAPTER 6 O DISCUSSION ........................................................................................ 85
6.1 .ni e Plant Communities of the Vermilion Bum .............................................. 85
6.2 . Critique of the Model ........................................................................... 117
6.3 .............................................................. O Suggestions for Further Research 122
CHAPTER 7 .CO NCLUSION .................................................................................. 127
REFERENCES ................................................................................................... 130
APPENDIX 1 ...................................................... O Data and Software Used in this Thesis 136
APPENDIX 2 . Model Flow Chart ................................................................................ 137
APPENDIX 3 .Ca rtographie Model .............................................................................1. 38
APPENDIX 4 .Ins trument Used for Recording of Field Data ............................................. 141
APPENDIX 5 O Complete List of Species Identifiied in the Vermilion Bum ............................. 142
APPENOIX 6 .Su mmary of Plant Species Composition by Cluster ..................................... 145
APPENDIX 7 .DE M-Derived Ancillary Data Layers ......................................................... 156
APPENDIX 8 .Su mmary Sbtistics for Tree Species ....................................................... 163
vii
LIST OF TABLES
Table 3.1 .................................................... O Lower Subalpine Ecmites of Vermilion Pass 18
Table 3.2 .Up per Subalpine Ecosites of Vermilion Pass ....................................................1 9
Table 5.1 .Su mmary of Main Features of Field Data Set ................................................... 51
Table 5.2 .Pl ant Communities of the Vermilion Bum ......................................................5..9
Table 5.3 O Correiation Mat& for Potential Diagnostic Species and Ancillary Variables ............ 62
Table 5.4 .................................................... O Parameters for Spatial Dependence Models 76
Table 5.5 .......................................... O Error Matrix For Maximum Likelihood Classification 8 3
viii
UST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1 . Map of Vermilion Pass and the Vermilion Burn .................................................. 5
Figure 2.2 .M ean Monthly Temperature and Pracipitation. Verniilion Pass ..............................8
Figure 3.1 .19 72 Distribution of New Pine Seedlings ....................................................... 23
Figure 3.2 .19 72 Distribution of New Spruce and Fir Seedlings .......................................... 24
Figure 3.3 .19 72 Distribution of Dominant Shnib Species ............................................. 24
Figure 3.4 .19 72 Distribution of Dominant Herb Species ...............................................2 5
Figure 4.1 .Di agram of a Sample Plot ..........................................................................2 8
Fgure 4.2 .Co nversion of Raw Aspect Values to Solar and CroûîValey Aspect ...................3 4
Figure 4.3 .3x 3 Convolution Math for Deriving Cunrature ...............................................3. 7
Figure 4.4 . Hypothetical Experimental Semivariogram and Spatial Dependence Model ........... 50
Figure 4.5 .Hy pothetical Maximum Likelihood Classifion ........................................5 3
Figure 5.1 .De ndrogram of Cluster Analysis Results ......................................................5 8
Figure 5.2 O Map of Locations of Sample Plots ................................................................ 60
Figure 5.3 O DEM of Vermilion Pass ............................................................................ 61
Figure 5.4 O Equiprobability Contour Diagram for Lodgepole Pine and Rusty Menziesia ............ 63
Figure 5.5 O Coincident Histogram for Lodgepole Pine ......................................................6 4
Figure 5.6 .Co incident Histogram for Rusty Menziesia ..................................................6. 5
Figure 5.7 O Equiprobability Contour Diagram for Canadian Bunchberry and Grousebeny ......... 66
Figure 5.8 .......................................... O Coincident Histogram for Canadian Bunchbeny 6 7
Figure 5.9 .Co incident Histogram for Giousebeny ........................................................... 68
Figure 5.1 0 ........... O Results of KM-Wallis Non-Peramehfc Test for Sample Independence 70
Figure 5.1 1 = Generalized (Regression) Distribution of Lodgepole Pine ................................. 72
ix
Figure 5.1 2 .Ge neralized (Regression) Distribution of Rusty Menziesia ................................ 73
Figure 5.1 3 .Ge neralized (Regression) Distribution of Grousebeny ..................................... 75
Figure 5.1 4 .Kr iging lnterpolated Surface of Regression Residuals for Lodgepole Pine ........... 77
Figure 5.1 5 O Kriging Interpolated Surface of Regression Residuals for Rusty Menziesia .......... 78
Figure 5.16 O Kriging Interpolated Surface of Regression Residuals for Grousebeny ............... 79
Figure 5.17 = Modeled Distribution of Loâgepole Pine ...................................................... 80
Figure 5.1 8 . Modeled Distribution of Rusty Menziesia ................................................ 81
Figure 5.1 9 O Modeled Distribution of Grouseberry ............................................................ 82
Figure 5.20 . Modeled Distribution of Plant Communities ................................................ 84
Figure 6.1 O Modeled Distribution of Mount Whyrnper Open Pine/Buffaloberry (Cluster 1) ......... 87
Figure 6.2 O Modeled Distribution of Subalpine Meadows and Avalanche Tracks (Clustee) ....... 89
Figure 6.3 O Modeled Distribution of Stonn Mountain Grousebeny (Cluster 3) ......................... 92
Figure 6.4 O Modeled Distribution of South Side Open PinelMenziesia (Cluster 4) ................... 94
Figure 6.5 . Modeled Distribution of Open PinelMenziesialGrousebeny-Bunchberry (Cluster 5) . 96
Figure 6.6 O Modeled Distribution of Ribbon of Menziesia (Cluster 6) .................................... 99
Figure 6.7 . Modeled Distribution of Dog Hair Pine (Cluster 7) ........................................... 101
Figure 6.8 O Modeled Distribution of Bottomlands Dense Pine (Cluster 8) ............................. 103
Figure 6.9 .M odeled Distribution of Midslope Closed PineIMenziesia (Cluster 9) .................. 106
Figure 6.1 0 .M odeled Dist. of Closed Pine/8uffaalob~îGmuseberry-Twiinofw er (CI . 10 ) ....... 108
Figure 6.1 1 .19 99 Distribution of Lodgepole Pi ne by Plant Cornmunity ...............................1 09
Figure 6.12 ... O 1999 Distribution of Engelmann Spruce and Subalpine Fir by Plant Community 11 1
Figure 6.13 .1 999 Distribution of Dominant Shrub Species by Plant Community ................... 113
Figure 6.14 ..................... O 1999 Distribution of Dominant Herb Species by Plant Commun* 115
X
Figure 9.1 .DE Mderived Slope. Vermilion Pass ........................................................... 156
Figure 9.2 .DE Mderived Solar Aspect. Vermilion Pass ................................................... 157
Figure 9.3 - DEMderived Cross-Valley Aspect. Verniilion Pas ......................................... 158
Figure 9.4 - DEM-derived Solar SlopeAspect Index. Vermilion Pas .................................. 159
Figure 9.5 . DEMderived Cross-Valley Slope Aspect Index. Vermilion Pass ........................ 160
Figure 9.6 - DEMderived DomiSIope Curvature. Vermilion Pass ...................................... 161
Figure 9.7 - DEMderived Cross-Slope Curvature. Vermilion Pas ...................................... 162
LIST OF EQUATîONS
Equation (1) .Sq uarad Euclidean Measure of Distance .....................................................3 2
Equation (2) .Ca lculation of Slope-Aspect Index .............................................................3. 5
Equation (3) O Cafculation of Slope Vector ................................................................ 37
Equation (4) O Cakulation of X-Component of Slope ..................................................... 3 8
Equation (5) .Ca kulatîon of Y-Component of Slope .......................................................... 38
Equation (6) .Ca lculation of Arimuth ............................................................................. 38
Equation (7) .Ca hlation of Curvature .......................................................................... 38
Equation (8) .Pe arson's Correlation Coefficient ............................................................... 40
Equation (9) O Kniskal-Wallis H-Statistic ......................................................................... 44
Equation (1 0) O General Simple Linear Regression Equation ............................................. 4 6
Equation (1 1) .Ge neral Multiple Linear Regression Equation .............................................. 47
Equation (12) .Ex perimental Semivariogram ............................................................ 4 9
Equation (13 ) .Or dinary Kriging Estimator ......................................................................5 1
Equation (14) oe Kappa Index of Agreement Statistic ........................................................ 55
Equation (15) O Regression Equation for Lodgepole Pine ...............................................7 1
Equation (16 ) .Re gression Equation for Rusty Menziesia .................................................7. 1
Equation (17 ) .Re grassion Equation for Grousebeny .......................................................7. 1
xii

Список литературы

1 27
CHAPTER 7 - CONCLUSION
The purpose of this thesis has been to generate a descriptive modal of the vegetative
response over the past three decades to a fire that bumed 2,430ha of mature spruce and fir forest
in Vermilion Pass in July, 1988. The Vermilion bum is unique due to its size, one of the largest fires
in the subalpine ecoregion of the southem Canadian Rocky Mountains in the past half century. It is
also unique for its location in two of Canada's National Paris, affording it the opportunity to
regenerate naturally, and with minimal human intewention.
The modeled distribution and composition of plant communities was produced by
combining an assortment of methods from various fields - ecdogy, biogeography and hndscape
modeling, Geostatistics and GIS, and remote sensing.
Vegetation and site charaderistic data from 218 sample plots were collected duhg th8
summer of 1999 from th8 Vermilion bum, and subsequently entered into a spreadsheet.
Hierardical cluster analysis was then used to group vegetation data from simlarly composed
sample plots into ten distinct clusters or plant communities.
A point coverage was created in a GIS from GPSobtained locations of sample plots. A
digital elevation mode1 (DEM) of the study area was obtained, and a series of seven terrain-related
ancHlary layers were derived from the DEM - measures of dope, solar and cross-valley aspect,
solar and cross-valley slope-aspect indices, and cross-slope and dom-dope curvature values
were al1 generated. The values for each of these variables were than spotted a sample plot
locations in the bum, and added to the thematic data set.
Next, three diagnostic species, lodgepde pine, rusty menziesia, and grousebeny, were
Conclusr"0n 128
selected, to be used to model the distribution of plant communities in the bum. Diagnostic species
were selected based on the following criteria, which were evaiuated sequentiaily: (a) species had
to be ubiquitous or near ubiquitous within aie bum; (b) species' had to demonstrate statisticaliy
signif'mnt correlation to at least one of the DEMderived ancillary variables; and (c) species
percent cover values within and between individual p Mco mmunities (Le. variance and
covariance) had to be such that they enabled or improved the separabili of at least one plant
community or group of plant communities from al1 others.
Once selected, continuous distributions were modeled for each of the three diagnostic
species percent cover within the bum, through a three slep process. First, a general distribution of
the species was modeleci from the regression of species' percent cover values against the mat
highly correlated ancillary variables at sample plot locations. Next, a continuous surface was
interpolated from the regression residuals ab sample plot locations using a rigorous geostatistical
process called ordinary kriging. Finally, the generalized distribution (regression) layer and the
interpolated residual layer were additiiely combined to produce a modeled distribution map for
each diagnostic species.
The three modeled percent cover distribution maps were then used as input channels for a
maximum likelihood classifkation procedure, which assigned a plant community identifier value
(between 1 and 10) to each cell in the raster grid, representing 25mX25m on the ground, according
to the percent cover values for each of the three diagnostic species in that pixel.
The modeled distribution of the 10 plant communities was used to assign an appropriate
name to each plant community, based on its vegetative composition, site preference, and speclic
Conclusion 129
location in the bum. Separate generalized distribution maps were created for lodgepde pine,
combined Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir, and dominant species in the 8-stratum and Cstratum.
These generalized distribution rnaps were used to compare curent vegetative
regeneration in the Vermilion bum to the plant community distribution that was present irnmediately
after the 1968 fire, as identaied and mapped by Hams [1976].
This thesis is directed towards the goal of improving the understanding of the spatial
dynarnics of vegetative regeneration in a natural ecosystem from the effects of fie. It is anticipated
that this will be the second in a series of M i e s of the vegetation of the Vermilion bum, aimed at
acpuinng a full record of the fire cycle in this paiacular location.
Re ferences 130
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